NASRA Publishes Public Fund Survey Summary of Findings for FY 2021

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NASRA Publishes Public Fund Survey Summary of Findings for FY 2021

On October 26, 2022, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) released its Public Fund Survey Summary of Findings for FY 2021. For the first time since the inception of the Public Fund Survey, systems and plans have been added this year. The survey presents key data from 100 public defined benefit (DB) retirement systems with 128 plans, covering 13.2 million active members, 10.3 million retirees and other annuitants, and holding $4.82 trillion in assets.

​Overall, the retirement systems surveyed represent approximately 88% of state and local DB plan membership and assets as of Fiscal Year (FY) 2021. The Summary of Findings presents information regarding plan funding, membership, benefits, contribution rates, cash flows, and actuarial assumptions. 

The NASRA analysis notes that, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an unusual level of economic and investment market volatility which has continued since early 2020. Notable in the update is the improvement in the aggregate funding level to 74.9% which varies from the previous nine consecutive years of ranging from 71.8% to 73.7%. The predominant factor impacting higher funding levels in FY 2021 was strong investment returns. These strong investment returns also helped to raise annualized public pension fund returns for the 10 years ended 6/30/21 at 8.6% and 9.6% for the 10 years ended 12/31/21. However, NASRA indicated that, due to a sharp decrease in investment returns in FY 2022, next year there may be “a decline in both the aggregate public pension funding level and aggregate asset values held by retirement systems.”

According to the report:  

  • The aggregate funding level for the surveyed plans was 74.9% in FY 2021, up slightly from the prior year. Between FY 2020 and FY 2021, the aggregate actuarial value of assets increased 7.1% from $3.86 trillion to $4.13 trillion. The combined actuarial value of liabilities increased 3.7% from $5.32 trillion to $5.51 trillion. Many state and local plans smooth investment gains and losses into the actuarial value of assets over time (typically five years and sometimes longer). 
  • Growth in pension liabilities remains at a median rate below 4.0% for the fourth consecutive year, as a result of various factors such as plan maturity, low salary growth and employment levels among states and local governments and the effects of many pension benefit reforms (mainly reductions) enacted in recent years.
  • The average allocation of plan assets to public equities has declined steadily since the major decrease in global capital markets in 2008-2009. In FY 2021, the allocation to fixed income securities declined slightly to 21.2% and equities at about 47.0%. In recent years, allocations to real estate declined slightly to 6.8% and allocations to alternative investments (such as private equity and hedge funds) has continued to grow reaching the 22.6% threshold for the first time.
  • For most of the Public Fund Survey’s measurement period, the median investment return assumption used by public pension plans was 8.0%. However, in FY 2021, the median actuarial assumption for investment return was 7.0%. Notably, since 2009, many plans have reduced their investment return assumptions.
  • Since the inception of the survey, employer contribution rates have increased significantly mainly due to larger unfunded pension liabilities and often include lower investment return assumptions. For some plans, higher employer contribution rates are the result of a disciplined approach to contribute all or more of their actuarially determined contributions. 

The survey data is available for each individual retirement system and plan in Appendices A and B. The data includes: plan membership, plan assets and liabilities, and actuarial funding levels.  

The summary is available here.

Society of Actuaries Releases 2022 Mortality Improvement Update

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Society of Actuaries Releases 2022 Mortality Improvement Update

In October 2022, the Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) issued its 2022 Mortality Improvement Update Report. Typically, the report provides an annually updated mortality improvement scale for pension plans in the United States.

In the 2022 report, the RPEC noted that the most recent data available is from the 2020 calendar year, which was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the RPEC did not believe it would be appropriate to incorporate the substantially higher rates of mortality experience from 2020, without adjustment. Therefore, without new data deemed predictive to future mortality, the RPEC decided not to produce a new projection scale in 2022. However, the report includes instructions for individual practitioners to incorporate their   COVID-19 adjustments into the base improvement scale.

Currently, Piotr Krekora, Senior Consultant for GRS, serves as a member of the RPEC.

The report is available here.

CRR Compares Social Security Claiming Rates During COVID-19 and the Great Recession

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CRR Compares Social Security Claiming Rates During COVID-19 and the Great Recession

On October 25, 2022, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRR) published its brief, Social Security Claiming: COVID-19 vs. Great Recession. CRR studied the relative impacts of the COVID Recession and the Great Recession on the Social Security claiming behavior of various groups of workers. According to the brief, during the COVID Recession, the strong stock market resulted in an increase in the relative probability of early Social Security claiming rates among those with retirement assets. By comparison, during the Great Recession, workers remained in the labor market to replenish depleted savings.

Other key findings include:

  • In early 2020, many Americans were concerned that the COVID crisis may cause workers to claim Social Security early similar to the Great Recession.
  • By comparison, the COVID economy experienced strong growth in the stock market and significant unemployment relief unlike the Great Recession.
  • The analysis compared the relative impacts of the two recessions on early claiming by earnings group which found that: 1) during COVID, the thriving stock market induced early claiming among workers with retirement assets; and 2) the generous unemployment benefits decreased early claiming for many lower-paid workers.
  • Overall, the competing effects of the COVID Recession resulted in a slight decline in early claiming due to the COVID Recession, while the percentage claiming early increased significantly during the Great Recession.

The brief is available here.

SSA Announces 8.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment for Social Security Benefits for 2023

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SSA Announces 8.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment for Social Security Benefits for 2023

On October 13, 2022, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced an 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to benefits for 2023. This is the largest COLA in 40 years and the first time in over 10 years that Social Security increases have not been eroded by Medicare premiums. (In September 2022, Medicare announced that Part B premiums would be 3% lower in 2023.)

The 8.7% COLA will begin in January 2023 with benefits payable to more than 65 million Social Security beneficiaries. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January. Social Security COLAs are based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), updated monthly by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Further information is available here.

MissionSquare Survey Finds Majority of Public Sector Workers Concerned About Economic Conditions and Financial Security

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MissionSquare Survey Finds Majority of Public Sector Workers Concerned About Economic Conditions and Financial Security

On October 12, 2022, the MissionSquare Research Institute released its infographic, How Employer Benefits Can Help Public Sector Worker Anxiety Over Current Economy. According to a recent survey of over 1,000 public sector employees, 84% of the respondents have anxiety about the effects of the current economic conditions and market volatility on their financial security.

Other key findings include:

  • 81% of respondents reported concern about having enough money to live comfortably in retirement and having enough money throughout retirement, 72% were concerned about being able to retire on time, and 70% were concerned about having sufficient emergency savings;
  • 48% reported that high inflation and 37% reported that rising housing costs are resulting in lower retirement savings;
  • 42% believed that their retirement benefits were better than those of private sector workers;
  • 58% indicated that their retirement benefits were a factor in retaining their employment while 62% reported that other benefits such as insurance, health care and time off were factors as well; and
  • 86% responded that employers could help improve their retirement readiness by providing higher wages/salary, 54% indicated better retirement benefits, and 48% indicated better retiree health care benefits.

The infographic is available here.

 

Groom Reports on Required Minimum Distribution Transitional Relief for Beneficiaries for 2021 and 2022

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Groom Reports on Required Minimum Distribution Transitional Relief for Beneficiaries for 2021 and 2022

On October 11, 2022, Groom Law Group published its brief, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (“RMD”) Relief for Beneficiaries for 2021 and 2022. The brief reports on IRS Notice 2022-53, as issued on October 7, 2022.

The Notice provided guidance that the final regulations related to the required minimum distribution (RMD) rules under Internal Revenue Code (IRC) § 401(a)(9) will apply no earlier than the 2023 distribution calendar year. Notice 2022-53 also provides guidance related to certain RMD provisions that apply for 2021 and 2022 for post-death distributions to beneficiaries under IRAs and defined contribution plans.  

Notice 2022-53 provides transitional relief for 2021 and 2022 for RMDs that may not have been made in 2022 in compliance with the Proposed RMD Rule issued on February 24, 2022, or in 2021 consistent with what the IRS would consider to be a good faith interpretation of the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (SECURE Act).

Specifically, Notice 2022-53 provides that:

  • Pending RMD regulations (for all plan types) will not be effective before the 2023 distribution calendar year;
  • Corrections are not required to be made for missed 2021 “specified RMD” payments; and
  • 2022 RMD payments do not need to be made for beneficiaries receiving “specified RMD” payments.

The Notice’s definition of a “specified RMD” is rather complex. Under the proposed regulations, it refers to any distribution that would be required in accordance with IRC 401(a)(9) in 2021 or 2022 under a defined contribution plan or IRA subject to the rules of IRC 401(a)(9)(H) for the year that the employee (or designated beneficiary) died if that payment would be required to be made under certain circumstances.

The brief is available here and Notice 2022-53 is available here.

EBRI Examines the Pandemic’s Effect on Retirement Spending in 2022

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EBRI Examines the Pandemic’s Effect on Retirement Spending in 2022

On October 6, 2022, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) released its issue brief, 2022 Spending in Retirement Survey: Understanding the Pandemic’s Impact. The brief examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on retirement spending patterns and well-being changes since 2020. On average, the retirees included in the survey reported lower alignment with preretirement expectations and less satisfaction with life in retirement as compared with 2020.

Some of the key findings include:

  • In 2022, over 50% of the respondents retired earlier than expected with 29% citing retirement affordability and 21% having a health issue or disability unrelated to COVID-19.
  • 70% reported that Social Security was a significant income source, unchanged from 2020.
  • On average, respondents reported that about 33% of monthly income was spent on housing expenses and the second largest expenditure was food.
  • About 27% reported spending has increased and is higher than they can afford in 2022 as compared with 17% in 2020.
  • Among those that decreased either their essential or discretionary spending since the pandemic, about 90% cited concern about inflation.
  • Overall, about 70% of retirees reported having three months of emergency savings.
  • The majority of respondents that reported lower senses of well-being based on their standard of living, alignment, and satisfaction included: 1) retirees without defined benefit or other annuity income; 2) retirees with limited financial knowledge or not using a financial advisor; and 3) retirees that were female and unmarried.

The results are based on a recent survey of about 2,000 American retirees between the ages of 62 and 75.

The report summary is available here.

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On July 17, 2019, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRR) released the updated Public Plans Database (PPD), which is developed and maintained through a collaborative effort of the CRR, the Center for State and Local Government Excellence (SLGE), and the National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA).

The updated database contains annual state and local pension data for 2001-2018, with over 100 variables related to plan funding, benefits, membership, assets and governance.  The plans include 190 state and local pension plans, which accounts for 95% of state and local pension assets and members.

The online database interface includes:

  • Quick-fact pages with key data at the national, state and plan levels;
  • Interactive data browser for customized searches;
  • Downloadable full dataset to conduct an in-depth analysis; and
  • Downloadable financial reports and actuarial valuations.

In the most recent update, various features and documentation have been improved, including the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 67 data and reports.

The database is accessible here.

Industry News

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This is the header text for industry news

On July 17, 2019, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRR) released the updated Public Plans Database (PPD), which is developed and maintained through a collaborative effort of the CRR, the Center for State and Local Government Excellence (SLGE), and the National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA).

The updated database contains annual state and local pension data for 2001-2018, with over 100 variables related to plan funding, benefits, membership, assets and governance.  The plans include 190 state and local pension plans, which accounts for 95% of state and local pension assets and members.

The online database interface includes:

  • Quick-fact pages with key data at the national, state and plan levels;
  • Interactive data browser for customized searches;
  • Downloadable full dataset to conduct an in-depth analysis; and
  • Downloadable financial reports and actuarial valuations.

In the most recent update, various features and documentation have been improved, including the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 67 data and reports.

The database is accessible here.

GRS Consultants to Serve on Speaker Panel at PARS Webinar

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November 1, 20222

GRS Consultants to Serve on Speaker Panel at PARS Webinar

Paul Wood and Blake Orth will serve as panel speakers at a webinar sponsored by Public Agency Retirement Services (PARS). The session titled “Trends and Best Practices for Managing OPEB & Pension Liabilities” will focus on the Texas landscape. In the face of inflationary pressures and market volatility, understanding current and forward-looking trends is key to developing strategies to address OPEB and pension liabilities. Insights on the importance of pre-funding; the advantages of using a section 115 trust; and case studies from Texas local governments will receive particular attention. A Q&A segment will round out the discussion.

The webinar is being held on November 1, 2022 at 10:00 am (CST).  Register here.

Lance Weiss to Co-Present at the CCA Annual Meeting

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October 19, 2022

Lance Weiss to Co-Present at the CCA Annual Meeting

Lance Weiss will serve as a co-presenter in an open forum format on actuarial topics associated with public sector plans. Topics will be selected by session attendees covering areas such as funding to surplus, volatility management, impact of higher interest rates on plan design, economic assumptions, ASOP 27, and ASOP 4.

The CCA Annual Meeting is being held October 16-19, 2022 in Austin, TX.

Dana Woolfrey to Serve on Speaker Panel at the 2022 CCA Annual Meeting

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October 18, 2022

Dana Woolfrey to Serve on Speaker Panel at the 2022 CCA Annual Meeting

Dana Woolfrey will participate in a panel discussion on the topic “”What’s My Line?” – Recent Research on Public Sector Plans” at the 2022 Conference of Consulting Actuaries (CCA) Annual Meeting. 

During the session, the panel will discuss and debate the key concepts conveyed in these recently published research papers, Enhancing Sustainability of Public Pensions, NCPERS, January 2022, and Addressing and Avoiding Severe Fiscal Stress in Public Pension Plans, Urban Institute, January 2022.  

The CCA Annual Meeting is being held October 16-19, 2022 in Austin, TX.