Industry News

On December 16, 2022, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its report, 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security. The report updates projections regarding the long-term revenues and outlays of the Social Security program under the CBO’s 10-year baseline budget projections through 2033, and the extended 75-year long-term projections through 2096.

The analysis includes Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI). In 2021, outlays from the OASI fund exceeded revenues whereas, for the DI fund, the outlays were similar to revenues.

The report states, “If the gap between the trust funds’ outlays and income occurs as CBO projects, then the balance in the trust funds will decline to zero in 2033 and the Social Security Administration will no longer be able to pay full benefits when they are due. Therefore, another set of projections reflects a scenario in which Social Security outlays are limited to what is payable from annual revenues (from payroll taxes and from income taxes on benefits) after the trust funds are exhausted.”  

According to the report, the gap between Social Security’s outlays and revenues widens over the long-term period. In 2022, total spending on the Social Security program is equal to 5.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) and by 2096 spending is projected to reach 7.0% of GDP. However, revenues remain about 4.6% over the same time period.

The report is available here.