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American Academy of Actuaries Publishes Issue Brief on the 2021 Social Security Trustees Report

On September 21, 2021, the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) released its issue brief, An Actuarial Perspective on the 2021 Social Security Trustees Report. The brief was developed by the AAA’s Social Security Committee and presents the Committee’s perspective regarding the 2021 Trustees Report, which examines the Social Security program’s long-term solvency issues. 

Importantly, the Trustees Report reflects the recent impact of COVID-19 and the ensuing recession, which lowered the tax income to Social Security and contributed to the combined trust fund reserves being projected to become depleted during 2034, one year earlier than projected last year.    

Key findings include:

  • OASDI finances have been significantly affected by the pandemic and recession of 2020.
  • If changes to the program are not implemented before 2034, only 78% of scheduled benefits would be payable after depletion in 2034, declining to 74% by 2095.
  • The actuarial deficit increased from 3.21% of taxable payroll to 3.54% of taxable payroll.  

Congress is urged to act to ensure the sustainable solvency of the Social Security program. Brian Murphy, Senior Consultant at GRS, serves on the AAA’s Social Security Committee, which authored this issue brief.

The brief is available here.