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NASBO Releases Spring 2020 Fiscal Survey of States

On June 25, 2020, the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) released their semi-annual report, The Fiscal Survey of States: Spring 2020.  The report updates information on the states’ fiscal conditions and presents aggregate and individual data on the states’ general fund receipts, expenditures, and balances.  The survey was conducted by NASBO and completed by the governors’ state budget officers in all 50 states over the period from March 2020 through May 2020.  

According to NASBO, the report is based mainly on data from governors’ budget proposals for fiscal 2021 and reflects state fiscal conditions before the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis.  It is expected that the report data will serve as a historical baseline for comparison to post-COVID fiscal conditions, as states release revised revenue forecasts, and adjust their budgets for fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021.

Pre-COVID, state fiscal conditions were generally solid and rainy day fund balances were at an all-time high.  As a share of general fund spending, the median rainy day fund balance was estimated to reach 7.8% in fiscal 2020.  In addition, fiscal 2021 budgets were focused on investing in key priorities while planning for modest spending growth of 2.8%.

Other key findings include:

  • Governors’ proposed appropriation increases total $33.2 billion, with more funding directed to K-12 education, Medicaid, reserves, and other areas.
  • In fiscal 2020, states estimated general fund spending was on course to grow 8% prior to the impact of COVID-19 on state budgets.
  • For fiscal 2020 general fund revenue collections, 42 states reported meeting or exceeding original budgeted revenue projections before the COVID-19 crisis.
  • Pre-COVID budgets were based on forecasted general fund revenue growth of 4% in fiscal 2021.
  • Overall, governors proposed mostly modest tax changes in their budgets, with a net revenue impact of $2.4 billion in fiscal 2021, with most additional revenue going toward non-general fund sources.
  • Pre-COVID Medicaid spending from all funds was expected to grow by a median of 4% in fiscal 2021, with state general funds increasing 4.2%, other state funds remaining steady, and federal funds growing 3.5%.

The full report and summary are available here.